Saturday, October 30, 2010

Gold, and the U.S. Economy

Found a couple of good articles I thought were worth sharing.

Gold, and the currency war - A great article on how gold is only doing good because practically every county in the world is devaluing their currency.

U.S. Economy - Chalk full of info on U.S. economic data

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Trades for 10-28-10, and weekly total

I did very well today especially considering that it was during the hours I’m not so good at. I’m finding that the more I relax I wind up doing better.

I start my weekend job tonight so I doubt I’ll be trading for the rest of this week. My weekly total is: +3.48%

Forex: (+1.30%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

2 trades, both gains

We can control it (we think)

Found a great read over at telegraph.co.uk I would comment on it, but it's best if you just read it for yourself.

Click Here

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Gold, inflation, and the news

I’ve seen quite a bit of news floating around about gold. Most say it’s going down because of speculation the fed will support a stronger dollar. I hope they are right because we need to get inflation under control. Sure it’s not bad on the consumer end right now, but if we let it continue the consumer will be hit hard eventually.

Some other news for today:
Emerging markets curb currency gains
Cotton on the rise

Trades for 10-27-10

I wanted to trade UK hours like I normally do, but like I said in my last post I was up late with the guys talking hunting.

Forex: (+1.20%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

2 trades, both gains

Trades for 10-26-10

I didn’t get around to posting this until today because our friend bagged an elk. Wound up helping him skin/quarter the thing, then hanging out at his place until 12:30am.

Forex: (+.98%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

4 trades, 1 loss, and 3 gains


Friday, October 22, 2010

Brazil raises taxes on foreigners

Just reading some stuff before I get ready for my weekend job. Figured I share some of it.

Brazil pulled an interesting move to pull back their currency, Click Here to read it.

Highlights of next week’s calendar:
Oct. 25th: Bernanke speaks – 8:30amEST
Oct. 25th: Existing Home Sales (USD) – 10amEST
Oct. 26th: Prelim GDP (GPB) – 4:30amEST
Oct. 26th: CB Consumer Confidence (USD) – 10amEST
Oct. 27th: Core Durable Goods Orders (USD) – 8:30amEST
Oct. 27th: Official Cash Rate (NZD) – 4pmEST
Oct. 27th: RBNZ Rate Statement (NZD) – 4pmEST
Oct. 27th: Retail Sales (JPY) – 7:50pm
Oct. 28th: Nationwide HPI (GBP) – 2amEST
Oct. 28th: Unemployment Claims (USD) – 8:30amEST
Oct. 29th: KOF Economic Barometer (CHF) – 5:30amEST
Oct. 29th: Advance GDP (USD) – 8:30amEST

The end of an uncertain week

My total for the week is: +1.73%

I’m glad this week worked out, and I’m looking forward to next week.

After my 1st trade this morning I finally realized that I’ve been over thinking my trades. It took me long enough, but I think I may have solved my problem. However, time is the only way I’m going to know for sure so reserve final judgment until I get some trades to confirm this theory.

On a more random note, I've had this song stuck in my head today so I wanted to share it :)


Enjoy your weekend!

Totals for the day
Forex: (+1.87%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

4 trades, 1 loss, and 3 gains


Some food for thought

Did some surfing and found some interesting and useful articles. I’m about to fire up oanda, and start my day. I’m going to try my hardest to only enter if it’s a REALLY good trade in order to limit my number of trades.

Japan changes it’s rhetoric
Germany is doing ok, but may slow down

Fed officials at odds on further easing - I would agree with Hoenig, if the fed continues pumping money into the economy it’s just going to cause a bigger headache down the road.

Found an interesting post on how retail forex works. Click here to read it

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Trades for 10-21-10

Today’s trading was a little better, but still not up to par.

Totals for the day
Forex: (+.27%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

6 trades, 3 losses, and 3 gains



Trades for 10-20-10

My performance today was abysmal. I still overtraded, jumping in and out on every little “blip,” and wasn’t predicting but rather reacting.

I will get rid of this habit! My determination will get me through this!

There were many headlines today, but for some reason this one stuck out the most to me:

Brazil interest rate, and the Real

Totals for the day
Forex: (-1.04%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

10 trades, 7 losses, and 3 gains




Wednesday, October 20, 2010

The beige book report Oct. 20th 2010

Here are some highlights from today’s Beige Book:

Manufacturing is doing good with production and orders rising. People seem to be continuing to spend, but more on necessities then anything else. Inflation on the wholesale level (shipping, commodities, etc.) rose slightly, but wasn’t passed onto the consumer. Wages looked to be flat for the period, and companies are expecting an increase in benefit (health care) costs.

To read the entire report Click Here.

My opinion is the recovery (if that’s what you want to call it) will likely continue at the same pace as it’s been. It looks like we are stuck in a consolidation period that will likely last another year, however don’t quote me on that until after this year’s holiday shopping season.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Still over trading, and the drop in gold

Performance is still lacking, and I may have found out why. For one I am somewhat over trading, and I’ve noted that most of my losses have been incurred between the hours of 7amEST-11amEST. For now I’m just going to try improving with this over trading habit I have, and see where I am afterwards.

Some useful articles for you to read on why we had such a big move in the dollar (and gold) today:

USD gains value from Bernanke and Geithner policies
Gold slips as China rises (interest rates)

Totals for the day
Forex: (+.63%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

9 trades, 3 losses, and 6 gains




Saturday, October 16, 2010

Weekly total, and the new forex regulations on leverage

This week I only got in 2 days of trading. One was flat, and the other day was essentially flat (+.18%). I also don't feel I traded very well this week. My bad trading had mostly to do with my messed up schedule and allowing myself to get distracted with a game I play (cybernations). My total for the week wound up being a whopping +.18%

I also just finished reading up on the basics of the new forex leverage regulations. After reading a few articles on the subject the best one I found was from forextv (click here for link). I agree with the overall feeling of anyone trading at or above 50:1 leverage won't be trading for much longer (it's really stupid to be trading like that). On the flip side I feel the regulation shouldn't have been made. The reason I feel this way is becuase of the pricipal of the government knows what is best for you and I. Is someone really stupid for trading at 50:1 or higher? Yes! Will they likely loose all of their money quickly? Yes! Is a firm really stupid and wrong to be taking advantage of people with 50:1 or greater leverage? Yes! However, this doesn't mean the government should be telling us what we should be doing with our businesses and/or personal decisions.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Trades for 10-13-10

My trading wasn’t very good today. Couldn’t really get it to “click” mentally, but I did manage to avoid a down day.

Totals for the day
Forex: (+.18%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

8 trades, 4 losses, and 4 gains




Trades for 10-12-10, and links

Today I was flat, and my trading overall was “ok.”

I did manage to find dome useful, and interesting links that I’d like to share:
Dollar rises versus euro
Confidence Improves in October Driven By Hopes of GOP Taking Control of Congress
Trade War Could Trigger Treasurys Selloff

Totals for the day
Forex: (flat%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

7 trades, 3 losses, and 4 gains




Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Fed rate hike an improvement

Read a good article today (Click here to read it) and had a few of my own comments to make on it.

John Canally I think is wrong it will strengthen the dollar, and I don't think it will cause stocks to fall. They may at first but I think it will help the stock market because a strong dollar will help with exports. In turn we would also have jobs improving because we would be making stuff, and companies would be making more money to hire people with.

This guy from Miami is amazing. He has been laid off for 2 years, goes job hunting, finally gets an offer and turns it down because "it doesn't pay as much as his old job?" Beggars can't be choosers, your industry is in the crapper so you should expect to be taking a pay cut (or change the type of work you do). That's like a retail store refusing to lower the price of it's product even though they have a large surplus and demand for that product has all but despaired. However, I don't blame him when the government is paying him to sit around for 2+ years.

Friday, October 8, 2010

A blog overhaul, and today's trades

I finally got around to updating my blog. The old look wasn’t really getting the job done for me, and the newer layout looks better in my opinion (though I would like to hear your opinion in the comments!). I also made my own header, added an educational link, and updated the “blogs I read” section. I just weeded out the old blogs that I either don’t read or that have been taken down. I will eventually add more blogs to my reading list at some point in time.

I’ve also finally got around to signing up on the Forex Factory forums, and started to lightly get back into posting on the Trade2Win forums. Between the 2 I find myself on the forex factory forums more often then the T2W forums. You can find me on both under the username “StockHunter.”

Now on to trading,

I almost didn’t trade today, but since I was on the computer I left the chart up in the background. During my 1st trade I found out that today has G7 and IMF meetings going on. So I decided to just stick with the one trade, even though I had a good 2nd set up in EUR/USD (link).

The funny part about today was the jobs number. Though it was slightly better then expected you can tell the reaction was all emotion because the EUR/USD went right back into it’s same range. This only confirmed to myself that I made the right decision in staying out of the market after my 1st trade.

Totals for the day
Forex: (+.24%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

1 trade for a gain


Note: my total for the week is +.73% (3 days of trading)

News ramblings

Sifting through the news today I came across a good article talking about a few topics (Click here to read it).

From the sounds of it the Aussies are the only ones in the world with a decent economy. According to the article their unemployment rate is holding “steady” at 5.1%, which is contributing to their currency doing well lately. I figure it’s got mostly to do with the fact they actually produce stuff (metals mostly), unlike the U.S. where we are a “service” economy.

With demand dropping for crude/gas hopefully we will begin to see some better prices at the pump. However, gas prices falling will likely be hindered by the dollar loosing value. My guess is the drop in demand is likely due to some seasonality, along with less people traveling because of the uncertainty in the job market.

On a side note I’ve made 1 trade (short gold) so far today, which was a gainer (chart will be posted later). Almost went in on EUR/USD on the 7:02amEST bar (see chart below), but with the G7/IMF meetings going on today I decided to keep my number of trades to a minimum.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Trades for 10-7-10

I did pretty good today, nice and consistent which is what I’m looking for. Not sure if I’ll trade tomorrow or not.

I noticed gold took a dive today, but looking at the daily chart it looks like it was due for a pullback.

Totals for the day
Forex: (+1.50%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

5 trades, 1 loss, and 4 gains




Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Trades for 10-6-10

Today may have been a down day, but I’m still happy about it because I managed my risk very well. The only negative thing I have to say about today is I could have made a little more on my last trade had I not brought the stop so close. However, I’m not going to beat myself up over it because with the run up it already had my tight stop was justified.

Totals for the day
Forex: (-1.01%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

5 trades, 3 losses, and 2 gains



Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Research enlightens me

My day today consisted mostly of reviewing my past trades. I looked back at my charts and noticed a few things. For one I’d say about 75% or more of my trades were late entries. This was due to me always waiting for a support or resistance break, which wouldn’t be bad if I were using breakouts during the proper times. I’ve also realized that my constant size adjusting was not good. By doing that I not only made some winners less and losers worse, but it would also put me in a scatterbrained mindset. A couple other things of note were I should manage my risk a little better, and keep myself mentally sharp. If I focus more on the type of market instead of where the next trade is I should do fine. The decision I have come to is trying my system once more, but with a different mindset and style. I will have the above issues resolved, and will be testing this over the coarse of the next month.

I managed to squeeze in a trade after I completed my above research. Using my new mindset and style proved to be profitable, now it’s just a matter of testing it out.

Totals for the day
Forex: (+2.05%) Paper-trades
All times on the charts are Mountain Standard Time

1 trade for a gain

Monday, October 4, 2010

A boring night at work

So, I’m sitting here at work (weekend job) bored out of my mind. I wish I could do some trading/strategy testing right now, but the laptop I have is very old and unable to do anything other then play mp3s/check e-mail. I’ve been thinking about getting a new laptop or at least a netbook for a while now, and got a few picked out. Just need to wait and see how much money I have left over after my dad leaves (he is up visiting right now).

I’m to the point of my re-learning curve that I’m ready to start testing some strategies out. I need a strategy for flat/choppy, trending, and volatile market types (1 or more strategies for each). If any of you have a strategy(ies) for any of the above market types I would love to know about it. I will likely not copy it exactly, but things you may use (i.e. a certain combination of indicators, or chart patterns) could help me develop my own strategy.

Also, now that I am getting back into my blogging I would like to know what you all want to see more of. I’ve listed some items in a poll I’ve started (to the right of this post), but I’m sure there is something I’ve missed. So if you have something that isn’t listed please post it in the comments. The poll will expire on 10/15/10 at 11:59pmMST, and within a few days afterwards a post will be made announcing the results.