Friday, October 31, 2008

Trades for 10-31-08, and weekly total

My total for the week (10-27-08 to 10-31-08) is (+1.29%) or (+$342.79)


Today I had 1 trade, avoided some losses, and missed a gain because I couldn’t get the shares I needed. Over all it was a good day, stopped trading at about 1pmEST because everything was going flat like it’s been this whole week.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: (+.31%) (+$85.60)

NSM – Long (+.31%) (+$85.60) Took what I could, thinking it might head south. I was wrong but only missed out on an extra .50% because I would have stopped myself out @ $13.14 shortly thereafter.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Trades for 10-30-08

Today was a 1 trade (flat) day, the market didn’t really throw anything my way. I also avoided a loss in CA (long) because I decided to wait for it to break resistance which didn’t happen and it went down.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: (+.01%) (+$2.88)

WLP – Short (+.01%) (+$2.88) Went flat for too long so I took the break even. I’m glad I did because I would have been stopped out at -.71%

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Trades for 10-29-08

No trades today, just flat on the indexes until the fed rate cut came out. All around boring day for me.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Trades for 10-28-08

I edited my 10k strategy post, adding a couple of things.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: (+1.54%) (+$409.87)

AGN – Short (+2.16%) (+$582.49)


BAX – Short (-.62%) (-$172.62)

Monday, October 27, 2008

Trades for 10-27-08, and my 100th post!!!

Woohoo! It’s my 100th post!

I have thrown out the VT strategy for now because it hasn’t been performing well lately (see chart below), but I will likely use it again because I noticed that it does work in certain markets. I finally started trading for real with my 10k strategy today.

Totals for the day

10k strategy: (-57%) (-$155.56)

KSS – Long (-.57%) (-$155.56) Should have gotten out when my trailing stop was hit @ $28.18, but I let it go to my secondary stop @ $27.98


This is the chart of the VT strategy’s performance (per trade), as you can see it did work before the recent market volatility:


And just for the heck of it, 10k strategy performance chart (per trade):

Saturday, October 25, 2008

The 10k strategy

NOTICE: Keep in mind I no longer use this strategy! It is only here for educational purposes, and many of the links no longer work.

I’m finally done!

Ok, to begin with I got the strategy from http://www.10kthrownaway.com/blog/?page_id=117. I have added more than a few of my own rules to it so I will try my best to explain it to you.

My list of stocks that I trade can be found at http://stockhunter.blocks.com/ViewWatchList.aspx?id=111. I use 5 minute and daily charts, with a 20 period Simple Moving Average (SMA), and an 8 period Money Flow Index (MFI). I also have a 50-SMA on volume but that’s just for quick reference. I use the 5 minute chart for everything except picking a stop gain, which is what the daily chart is used for. If you have StockFinder I can send you my layout, just shoot me an e-mail at breckskibum0@yahoo.com.

When prospecting I pull up the 5 minute chart, then look for:

1.) A good trend
2.) Its pulling back
3.) MFI is less than 60 (for longs), or more than 40 (for shorts)
4.) Volume is trending down during the pullback
5.) Did not gap big this morning (gaps more than 10% are not traded)
6.) The 20-SMA is trending down (short) or up (long) for 5 bars or more

Example:


If all of the above line up I add then to a temporary watch list. Once I’m done making a temporary watch list I look through the stocks in it until I find an entry.

For a long I enter when the price comes very close to or is on the 20-SMA, volume is still falling during the pullback, and the MFI is less than or equal to 40. I only enter on stocks that haven’t touched the 20-SMA if the price has consolidated already (see DO_10-22-08 for example [yes it’s a short, but the same principle applies to longs]). If the stock hasn’t consolidated yet, I wait until it does consolidate on the 20-SMA (see WLP_10-9-08 for an example). If the price looks like it’s going to (or does) break the 20-SMA I do not trade it.

For a short I enter when the price comes very close to or is on the 20-SMA, volume is still falling during the pullback, and the MFI is greater than or equal to 60. I only enter on stocks that haven’t touched the 20-SMA if the price has consolidated already (see DO_10-22-08 for example). If the stock hasn’t consolidated yet, I wait until it does consolidate on the 20-SMA (see WLP_10-9-08 for an example [yes it’s a long, but the same principle applies to shorts]). If the price looks like it’s going to (or does) break the 20-SMA I do not trade it.

Here are my other rules I use with this strategy, all examples can be found by clicking on them:

1.) Try to avoid "dirty" charts (dirty chart=not a good trend) see FSLR_8-11-08 for a clean example and CME_8-13-08 for a “dirty” example
2.) Don't trade stocks that cause the moving average to change in the morning see LMT_8-13-08 for an example
3.) Avoid the "line breakers" see PCX_8-8-08 for line breaker unless they barely break and then flatten for a couple of bars see MON_8-7-08 for line breaker that flattened (focus on the entry point, the trade broke more then just this rule).
4.) Risk:reward has to be 1:1 or better
5.) Do not risk more than 1.50% (I will let it go up to 2% if I don’t get the price I want + I feel strongly about the pick)

Once I enter a trade I will pick a good daily level as my stop-gain (usually 4% or more but it varies), then run a trailing stop to it. Now the stoploss, and trialing stop is where it gets tricky, because their mostly based on experience. For my initial stop I put it above (short) or below (long) the 20-SMA far enough to where the price would be crossing it therefore heading the other way. For the trailing stop, most of the time once it hits a 1% gain I go off the previous bar’s high. I also exit if the stock goes flat for a long time (7 bars or more after entry). On rare occasions I will move the stop more slowly which is basically the same as the above but staying above the 20-SMA with it.

One last thing to note is if a lot of my picks are looking like they are going to (or are) crossing the 20-SMA, I will give the ones that haven't more time before entry. This is because most stocks tend to go with the rest of the market, therefore they will cross if most of the others have or are going to crossover the 20-SMA.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Trades for 10-24-08, and weekly total

My weekly total (10-21-08 to 10-24-08) is:
10k: +3.50%
VT: -6.81%


We missed a big drop today thanks to the existing home sales data. If it weren’t for that we most likely would have tripped the breakers. As far as how I did, 10k had 0 trades which hasn’t happened in a long time. VT got burned with the last 2 trades.

Totals for the day

10k strategy: 0%
No trades

VT strategy: -4.98%

RIG – Short (+.81%)


ABX – Long (+.97%)


CNX – Short (-3.39%) I knew this one was going to hit $24.13 but followed my stop-loss rules. Had I not of it would have been a +1.12%


ENER – Short (-3.37%)

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Trades for 10-23-08

Had an awesome trade in 10k, I could have let it run but I stuck to my trailing stop rules. I started working on that strategy tutorial I talked about in a previous post, I hope to have it done by Sunday.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: +2.80%

NYT – Short (-.91%) Mistake: I shoud have waited for a bar or 2


LRY – Short (+3.71%) Trailing stopped out



VT strategy: -.89%

KBH – Short (+2.25%)


WY – Short (-2.01%)


ACI – Long (-1.13%)

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Trades for 10-22-08

Looks like I’m going to get busy soon, got some things to do and I also want to make a page that shows you what my strategies are. For now I’m off to play with forex then we will see if I can get on the rest of what I want to do.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: +2.20%

SFD – Short (-1.14%) Mistake: It crossed the line so I should have waited a bar or 2 longer


DO – Short (+3.33%)


VT strategy: -.22%

HME – Short (-2.15%)


FCL – Short (+1.93%)

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Trades for 10-21-08

Got back last night from deer hunting over the weekend didn’t get anything, and it looks like I might not go back out because of a lack of deer in the area I’m hunting. Today was slow for picks so I updated the “My trading set up” on this page.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: -1.50%

PEG – Long (-1.50%) Mistake: it picked up volume when touching the line, didn't notice because of 4pm bar from the daybefore


VT strategy: -.72%
No charts but here are the trades, MST=Mountain Standard Time

+.79% SNDK 8:12amMST to 8:28amMST Long from $15.05 to $15.18
-1.51% CNX 12:42pmMST to 1:16pmMST Long from $38.13 $37.58

Friday, October 17, 2008

Trades for 10-17-08

Leaving today to go hunting so here are the stats for the day. We left too early for me to take screenshots of the charts. When all this hunting is over I will be making a post that will explain how I trade and the strategies I use, so stay tuned!

Totals for the day
10k strategy: +3.21%

WY – Long (+3.64%)

SFD – Long (-.43%)

VT strategy: +1.94%
No charts but here are the trades, MST=Mountain Standard Time

+1.44% SU 8:07amMST to 8:25amMST Long from $21.15 to $21.47
+.50% RIO 8:51amMST to 9:12amMST Long from $12.30 to $12.37

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Trades for 10-16-08

Back from hunting didn’t bag anything, all I ran into was bulls and I had a cow tag :*(. I’ll be leaving tomorrow afternoon for deer season so if there is no post you know why. No VT charts today, didn’t take the screens yet.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: -1.45%

ABX – Short (-1.45%)


VT strategy: +1.06%
No charts but here are the trades, MST=Mountain Standard Time

+1.88% HOT 8:09amMST to 8:15amMST Short from $19.95 to $19.56
+.64% JCI 8:32amMST to 8:41amMST Short from $19.70 to $19.56
+.85% VLO 9:02amMST to 9:22amMST Short from $16.28 to $16.13
-2.31% GGB 10:24amMST to 10:43amMST Long from $5.80 to $5.67

Friday, October 10, 2008

Trades for 10-10-08

Alrighty then, the market finally looks like it MIGHT be slowing down. VT was crap today, but 10k was awesome. I might end up trading 10k for real when I get back from hunting, so I’ll let you know if I do.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: +2.29%

MGA – Short (+2.71%)


GIS – Short (-.42%)


VT strategy: -5.46%
WooHoo, more charts!

WFC – Long (-6.12%)


BVN – Short (-3.84%)


DDS – Short (+2.53%)


KALU – Short (+3.30%)


BRY – Short (-3.26%)


LRY – Long (+1.93%)

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Trades for 10-9-08

Today was boring for most of the day, but once 3pmEST hit holy crap. I’m wondering where our so called “leaders” are? The fed chairman, treasury secretary, and the president seem to be no where. We need them to reassure us they are working on it, even if all they can do is say “we are here” it would help the markets. Looks like they are more concerned with globalizing us more then fixing the mess we have.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: +1.58% (the “W” trades)

WMI – Short (+1.39%)


WFC – Short (+.71%)


WLP – Long (-.51%)


VT strategy: +.80%
Wow, I’ve got charts this time :)

ANR – Long (-2.41%)


MER – Short (+1.10%)


SU – Short (+2.11%)

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Trades for 10-8-08

Today VT kicked but, things felt like they were clicking for me. I tweaked some settings in blocks because like I said in a previous post, I am merging my VT and 10k lists of stocks together.

Totals for the day: +8.53%

10k strategy: +.60%

PTR – Short (+.60%)


VT strategy: +7.93%

No charts, but here are the trades (MST=Mountain Standard Time):
+.34% PHM 8:01amMST to 8:05amMST Long from $12.10 to $12.15
+1.53% SUN 8:23amMST to 8:33amMST Short from $25.62 to $25.21
+1.16% CNX 8:36amMST to 8:42amMST Short from $32.40 to $32.00
+1.84% HAL 9:14amMST to 9:47amMST Short from $19.94 to $19.56
+.53% BTU 10:07amMST to 10:23amMST Short from $28.49 to $28.32
-1.43% DIS 10:29amMST to 10:42amMST Short from $25.78 to $26.13
+1.85% ESV 11:04amMST to 11:10amMST Long from $41.15 to $41.94
+1.21% RIG 11:1amMST to 11:21amMST Long from $77.44 to $78.43
+.90% VLO 11:55amMST to 12:04pmMST Long from $21.67 to $21.88

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Trades for 10-7-08

Today I figured it would be crappy (flat or down) because it’s the day after a big move, and the charts said the same early this morning.

Totals for the day
VT strategy: -3.26% (no charts)
10k strategy: +.64%

ESS – Short (+1.03%): 10k strategy


BIDU – Short (-1.13%): 10k strategy


ARE – Short (+.74%): 10k strategy

Monday, October 6, 2008

Trades for 10-6-08

Ok, back for this trading week then I’ll be gone again hunting. I have decided to totally revamp the way I look for picks. What I mean by that is I will take both lists of stocks from the 10k and VT strategies and make them into 1. Once I do that I will then continue looking for picks with the same 2 strategies, but I will also become more dynamic. In other words I will look at all the charts and see what strategy(ies) work for that chart. Including my current 2 strategies, I will also be using old strategies. What I have been currently doing is taking a strategy and seeing what charts fit it. What I want to start doing, is look at charts and see what strategies apply to it. Now, you all will have to bear with me because I plan on paper-trading the rest of the year. This is to ensure that I can handle it, and also test my abilities at picking stocks.

Totals for the day
10k strategy: +.97%

BLK – Short (+.97%)


VT strategy: +2.79%

No charts, I was too busy with other stuff :Þ.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Trading results for 10-1-08, and hunting story

I have still been out hunting, went out for the last 2 days of my dad’s hunting season on 9-29-08 (last day was 9-30-08). The story goes:

Packed in about 3-4miles, on our way in (about 1mile short of our 4-5mile goal) we heard an elk bugle (it was after sundown by then). So we decided to set camp up right there because the bugle was only about 1000 yards away. While we were eating dinner we could still hear them, but they were getting farther away. That was a good thing because we knew they were going to the lake that was above us. So the next day we sneaky up the trail and run into 4 bulls about 125 yards away, which sucked because my dad had a cow tag. So we froze due to the bulls looking at us. While standing there we spotted some cows to the left of the bulls, and they were only about 150 yards away. While my dad was setting up the cows were watching us, and the lead cow figured us out so she led the herd away from us up the mountain. They only trotted off, so we decided to follow them. Once we covered the 150yards my dad started saying “we are screwed, they took off”, but we kept going up hoping to run into them. While heading up I found a cool looking arrowhead (pics of it will be posted on a later day) from back when the Native Americans roamed around the area. Once we got to the top, my dad started throwing a huge fit because we have been hunting sense the beginning of my bow season (8-30-08) and hadn’t bagged anything. Stomping his feet and cussing like a sailor he storms off away from me about 30yards. Meanwhile I’m taking a leak, and right after I zip up a bull runs right in front of me (about 200-250yards). I signal to my dad, and for a split second he thought I was messing with him. He saw the serious look in my face, but then started to get bummed because it was yet another bull. About 2 seconds after he started to get bummed, he spotted 3 cows tailing the bull. So he gets down and uses a rock for a rest, fires on one of the cows and misses! So he chambers another round, and shoots again. The cow starts to run downhill we are thinking “crap he missed again”, but after about 2 steps the cow’s but drops. She then trips on a rock and falls down dead! Our reaction was indescribably happy. Once I got done with the processing (gutting and quartering [I deboned it after we got closer to camp]) we realized that he couldn’t have shot her any higher up the mountain! lol, needless to say that we are super tired today (packed the whole thing out about 5miles in 1 trip). Here are the pics of my dad, the elk, and the view from where we shot her:




As far as trades today (10-1-08), I continued paper-trading and I’m too tired to post the charts :P. Results were:

10k strategy: +.34%, 1 trade (short)

VT strategy: +1.57% 2 trades (1 long, 1 short, both gainers)